2012 10 26 The Quiet Sun & Bonus Cassini Sees Huge Burp at Saturn After ...

  
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Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity
Solar activity has been low.  Region 1598 (S12E29) has
produced numerous C-class events throughout the period, and remains
the most magnetically complex region on the disk.  Although slight
decay was noted in Region 1598s trailer spots, it still maintains a
Delta magnetic configuration.  Region 1596 (N08W08) is moderately
sized with some magnetic complexity, but did not produce any flares
during the period. The other regions either remained stable or were
decaying.
Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class events, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class event for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct)
with Region 1598 the most likely source.
Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (25 - 27 Oct).
More ... http://truemaskedwabbit.blogspot.ca/2012/10/2012-10-26-quiet-sun-bonus-cassini-sees.html#links

2012 10 23 X1.8 CME - and Radio Blackout HD

   
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New sunspot AR1598 has erupted again. On Oct. 23rd at 0322 UT, Earth orbiting satellites detected a strong X1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Radiation from the flare created waves of ionization in the upper atmosphere over Asia and Australia (the daylit side of Earth) and possibly HF radio blackouts at high latitudes. The blast did not, however, produce a significant coronal mass ejection (CME). No auroras are expected to result from this event.

This is the 4th significant flare from AR1598 since it emerged over the southeastern limb only three days ago. This means more flares are probably in the offing, and they will become increasingly Earth-directed as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead.
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2012 Oct 23 0313 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 Oct 23 0317 UTC
End Time: 2012 Oct 23 0321 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Location: S10E53
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.
Stay tuned for updates.

2012-10-21 Class M9.0 Flare. Active Region keeps on giving more M flares...

  

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On Oct. 20th at 1814 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected a strong M9-class solar flare. The source was a new sunspot, AR1598, emerging over the sun's southeastern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash (image), which sent waves of ionization rippling through Earth's upper atmosphere. More flares are in the offing. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

10 active regions on the disk today.

A new sunspot region coming over the southeast limb 11598 poses a threat for M- and X-class solar flares.Region 11596 still has a Beta-Gamma magnetic complexity and continues to be a threat for geoeffective flares.

ORIONID METEOR UPDATE: The Orionid meteor shower is underway as Earth passes through a stream of debris from Halley's Comet. International meteor counts suggest a broad peak of about 25 meteors per hour centered on Oct. 21st. If the trend holds, sky watchers can expect to see a dozen or so Orionids flitting across the sky every hour after midnight on Oct. 21-22. Got clouds? Try listening for Orionid 'pings' on the realtime meteor radar. http://www.spaceweather.com/

2012-10-16 LIGHTBULB ERUPTION HD

 
 Sunspot AR1593, now emerging over the sun's northeastern limb, doesn't look very impressive. Yet two days ago it unleashed a very impressive eruption. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a glowing bulb of plasma more than 100,000 miles across on Oct. 14th:
The eruption occured while AR1592 was still on the farside of the sun, so Earth was not in the line of fire.(Or was it?) AR1592 will spend the next ~12 days facing our planet, setting the stage for geoeffective blasts if the sunspot erupts again.

The paradox and more
Stay tuned

2012-10-11 M1/M2 and Asteroid Flyby HD

  
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Solar Flares
6-hr max: C4 0804 UT Oct11
24-hr: C4 0804 UT Oct11
GOES X-ray Flux plot (updates every 5 minutes)
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html
Sunspot number: 71
5 active regions.
NE limb view from region 11589
http://www.solarmonitor.org/region_pop.php?date=20121011&type=saia_00193&...
 For the past two weeks, solar activity has been relatively low. Now, a change is in the offing. The farside of the sun is peppered with sunspots, and some of them are beginning to turn toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed this pair of active regions advancing over the eastern limb during the early hours of Oct. 11th:
http://www.spaceweather.com/images2012/11oct12/eastlimb.jpg
Underlying each nest of glowing magnetic loops is a dark sunspot that poses a threat for solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html
 Newly-discovered asteroid 2012 TC4 will fly past Earth on Oct. 12th only 96,000 km (0.25 LD) away. There is no danger of a collision, but the 16 meter-wide space rock will be close enough to photograph through backyard telescopes as it brightens to approximately 14th magnitude.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkGQ9uwdTn4&feature=g-all-u
Sources:NOAA/ http://www.spaceweather.com
ASTEROID FLYBY: Newly-discovered asteroid 2012 TC4 will fly past Earth on Oct. 12th only 96,000 km (0.25 LD) away. There is no danger of a collision, but the 16 meter-wide space rock will be close enough to photograph through backyard telescopes as it brightens to approximately 14th magnitude. NASA hopes to ping this this object with radar, refining its orbit and possibly measuring its shape. Stay tuned for updates.

2012 10 05 Flatlining Sun and EARTH Directed CME HD

  
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EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Magnetic fields near sunspot AR1582 slowly erupted on Oct 5th sparking a B7-class solar flare and hurling a CME toward Earth. The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) captured this image of the expanding cloud:
Although Earth is in the line of fire, it won't be a direct hit. Instead, the CME will deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field. NOAA forecasters estimate a 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras especially during the hours around local midnight.
This came on the heels of a post I was preparing about our sun flatlining again.
Enjoy and wish you all a very good weekend. :)